Metadata

Close
Metadata

1. Identity statement

Reference Type Report

Site mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br

Holder Code isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S

Identifier 8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3GHMAFL

Repository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2014/06.27.18.03

Last Update 2014:10.17.17.53.05 (UTC) administrator

Metadata Repository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2014/06.27.18.03.39

Metadata Last Update 2021:01.02.22.19.40 (UTC) administrator

Report Number INPE-17449-RPQ/906

Citation Key RozanteMore:2014:SuMoEn

Title Super Model Ensemble do CPTEC (SMEC)

Project Modelagem Numérica

Year 2014

Access Date 2024, June 25

Type RPQ

Number of Pages 62

Number of Files 1

Size 4561 KiB

2. Context

Author 1 Rozante, José Roberto 2 Moreira, Demerval Soares

Resume Identifier 1 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHJH

Group 1 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 2 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR

Affiliation 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)

Author e-Mail Address 1 roberto.rozante@cptec.inpe.br 2 demerval.moreira@cptec.inpe.br

e-Mail Address roberto.rozante@cptec.inpe.br

Institution Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

City São José dos Campos

History (UTC) 2014-06-27 18:13:17 :: rozante@gmail.com -> yolanda :: 2014-06-27 18:15:52 :: yolanda -> rozante@gmail.com :: 2014-10-09 14:31:23 :: rozante@gmail.com -> administrator :: 2014-10-15 14:58:33 :: administrator -> yolanda@sid.inpe.br :: 2014-10-15 17:46:21 :: yolanda@sid.inpe.br -> yolanda :: 2014-10-15 18:27:20 :: yolanda -> tereza@sid.inpe.br :: 2014-10-17 12:11:13 :: tereza@sid.inpe.br :: -> 2014 2014-10-17 17:55:00 :: tereza@sid.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2014 2021-01-02 22:19:40 :: administrator -> yolanda.souza@mcti.gov.br :: 2014

3. Content and structure

Is the master or a copy? is the master

Content Stage completed

Transferable 1

Keywords modelos numéricos multi-model ensemble previsão de tempo numerical models multi-model ensemble weather prediction

Abstract No presente estudo, é proposto um método de previsão numérica de tempo por conjunto para a região da América do Sul. Esse método leva em conta a combinações de previsões numéricas de vários modelos, atribuindo maiores pesos aos modelos que apresentem as melhores performance. Nove modelos numéricos, integrados operacionalmente, foram utilizados para a realização deste Estudo. O objetivo principal do estudo é obter um produto de previsão de tempo (curto-médio prazo) que agregue o que tem de melhor em cada um dos nove modelos utilizados no estudo, e consequentemente produzindo previsões mais confiáveis. O método proposto foi avaliado durante os meses de verão (dezembro 2012, janeiro e fevereiro de 2013) e inverno (junho, julho e agosto de 2013). Os resultados mostram que o método proposto consegue melhorar consideravelmente os resultados fornecidos pelos modelos numéricos, e consequentemente apresenta potenciais promissores para aplicações operacionais em qualquer centro de previsão de tempo. ABSTRACT: In this study, a method of numerical weather prediction by ensemble for the South American region is proposed. This method takes into account combinations of the numerical predictions of various models, assigning greater weight to models that exhibit the best performance. Nine operational numerical models were used to perform this study. The main objective of the study is to obtain a weather forecasting product (short-to-medium range) that combines what is best in each of the nine models used in the study, thus producing more reliable predictions. The proposed method was evaluated during austral summer (December 2012, and January and February 2013) and winter (June, July and August 2013). The results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the results provided by the numerical models, and consequently has promising potential for operational applications in any weather forecasting center.

Area CEA

Arrangement urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Super Model Ensemble...

doc Directory Content access

source Directory Content

originais/@4primeirasPaginas.pdf 15/10/2014 11:52 136.8 KiB originais/rozante.pdf 15/10/2014 14:33 4.2 MiB originais/RPQ_rozante-1 original.docx 15/10/2014 14:56 6.9 MiB originais/RPQ_rozante.docx 15/10/2014 11:59 6.9 MiB

agreement Directory Content

autorizacao.pdf 15/10/2014 15:25 667.5 KiB

4. Conditions of access and use

data URL http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3GHMAFL

zipped data URL http://mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br/zip/8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3GHMAFL

Language pt

Target File publicacao.pdf

User Group administrator rozante@gmail.com tereza@sid.inpe.br yolanda.souza@mcti.gov.br

Reader Group administrator rozante@gmail.com tereza@sid.inpe.br yolanda.souza@mcti.gov.br

Visibility shown

Rightsholder originalauthor yes

Read Permission allow from all

Update Permission not transferred

5. Allied materials

Mirror Repository iconet.com.br/banon/2006/11.26.21.31

Next Higher Units 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE

Citing Item List sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21/2012/07.13.14.52.36 4 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 3

Host Collection sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20

6. Notes

Empty Fields archivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyholder creatorhistory date descriptionlevel dissemination doi edition format isbn issn label lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress recipient schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey secondarymark secondarytype session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype translator url versiontype

7. Description control

e-Mail (login) yolanda.souza@mcti.gov.br

update