| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NNBG9B | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/04.17.17.30 | |||
| Last Update | 2017:04.17.17.34.45 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/04.17.17.30.41 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2018:06.04.02.27.23 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017 | |||
| ISSN | 1027-5606 | |||
| Label | self-archiving-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Citation Key | GuimberteauCDBABDGKLPRRTTVVZV:2017:MuAnNe | |||
| Title | Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios  | |||
| Year | 2017 | |||
| Month | Mar. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 19 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 11284 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Guimberteau, Matthieu 2 Ciais, Philippe 3 Ducharne, Agnes 4 Boisier, Juan Pablo 5 Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de 6 Biemans, Hester 7 Deurwaerder, Hannes de 8 Galbraith, David 9 Kruijt, Bart 10 Langerwisch, Fanny 11 Poveda, German 12 Rammig, Anja 13 Rodriguez, Daniel Andres 14 Tejada Pinell, Graciela 15 Thonicke, Kirsten 16 Von Randow, Celso 17 Von Randow, Rita de Cássia Silva 18 Zhang, Ke 19 Verbeeck, Hans | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 5 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGHD | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 COCST-COCST-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Université Paris-Saclay 2 Université Paris-Saclay 3 Sorbonne Universités 4 Universidad de Chile 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Wageningen University & Research 7 Ghent University 8 University of Leeds 9 Wageningen University & Research 10 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 11 Universidad Nacional de Colombia 12 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 13 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 14 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 15 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 16 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 17 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 18 Hohai University 19 Ghent University | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 matthieu.guimberteau@lsce.ipsl.fr 2 3 4 5 ana.aguiar@inpe.br 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 daniel.andres@inpe.br 14 graciela.tejada@inpe.br 15 16 celso.vonrandow@inpe.br 17 rita.vonrandow@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | |||
| Volume | 21 | |||
| Number | 3 | |||
| Pages | 1455-1475 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS A2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A2_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS B1_BIODIVERSIDADE B2_ARQUITETURA_E_URBANISMO | |||
| History (UTC) | 2017-04-17 17:30:41 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017-04-17 17:30:48 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 2017-04-17 17:34:45 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017 2017-06-26 17:28:05 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 2017-12-15 12:27:51 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017 2018-06-04 02:27:23 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Abstract | Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Boli-vian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmLDGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3 degrees C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5%, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10% at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6% decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22%. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajos is reduced by 31% in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34% over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the southeast, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff (up to + 27% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajos. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation is low. | |||
| Area | CST | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > COCST > Impacts of future... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NNBG9B | |||
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NNBG9B | |||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | guimber_impacts.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | allowpublisher allowfinaldraft | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Linking | 8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P55PUP | |||
| Mirror Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.22 | |||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.19.20.40 3 | |||
| URL (untrusted data) | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1455/2017/hess-21-1455-2017.pdf | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES. | |||
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn keywords lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readpermission rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarytype | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||