| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3PP5P5S | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/10.05.15.31 | |||
| Last Update | 2017:10.05.15.32.51 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/10.05.15.31.08 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:07.28.21.54.24 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0184353 | |||
| ISSN | 1932-6203 | |||
| Label | self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Citation Key | SilvaPutSilCarFra:2017:FiFoAc | |||
| Title | Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system  | |||
| Year | 2017 | |||
| Month | Aug. | |||
| Access Date | 2024, July 27 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 4826 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Silva, Carlos Patrick Alves da Silva 2 Puty, Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco 3 Silva, Marcelino Silva da 4 Carvalho, Solon Venâncio de 5 Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JJ99 | |||
| Group | 1 2 3 4 LABAC-COCTE-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) 2 Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) 3 Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) 4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 5 Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 patrickalves@ufpa.br 2 3 4 solon.carvalho@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | PLoS One | |||
| Volume | 12 | |||
| Number | 8 | |||
| Pages | e0184353 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A1_ZOOTECNIA_/_RECURSOS_PESQUEIROS A1_SAÚDE_COLETIVA A1_QUÍMICA A1_ODONTOLOGIA A1_NUTRIÇÃO A1_MEDICINA_VETERINÁRIA A1_MEDICINA_III A1_MEDICINA_II A1_MEDICINA_I A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_FARMÁCIA A1_ENGENHARIAS_III A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_ENFERMAGEM A1_EDUCAÇÃO_FÍSICA A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A1_CIÊNCIA_DE_ALIMENTOS A1_CIÊNCIA_DA_COMPUTAÇÃO A1_BIOTECNOLOGIA A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A1_ADMINISTRAÇÃO,_CIÊNCIAS_CONTÁBEIS_E_TURISMO A2_PSICOLOGIA A2_PLANEJAMENTO_URBANO_E_REGIONAL_/_DEMOGRAFIA A2_MATERIAIS A2_MATEMÁTICA_/_PROBABILIDADE_E_ESTATÍSTICA A2_ENGENHARIAS_IV A2_ECONOMIA A2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_III A2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_II A2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B1_EDUCAÇÃO B3_SERVIÇO_SOCIAL B3_LETRAS_/_LINGUÍSTICA B3_CIÊNCIAS_SOCIAIS_APLICADAS_I B3_ANTROPOLOGIA_/_ARQUEOLOGIA C_ENGENHARIAS_II | |||
| History (UTC) | 2017-10-05 15:31:08 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017-10-05 15:31:41 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 2017-10-05 15:32:51 :: simone -> administrator :: 2017 2021-07-28 21:54:24 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Abstract | Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts. | |||
| Area | COMP | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > DIDSA > Financial forecasts accuracy... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3PP5P5S | |||
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3PP5P5S | |||
| Language | en | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | allowpublisher allowfinaldraft | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3ESGTTP | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/09.22.23.14 3 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21/2012/07.13.15.00.34 3 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; SCOPUS. | |||
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn keywords lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readpermission rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||