| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) | |||
| Site | mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47MGJRP | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2022/09.26.15.26 | |||
| Last Update | 2022:09.26.15.26.02 (UTC) simone | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21d/2022/09.26.15.26.02 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2023:01.03.16.46.17 (UTC) administrator | |||
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ | |||
| Citation Key | BaltazarChouDere:2022:SeFoPe | |||
| Title | Seasonal forecast performance of the ETA model driven by INPE's BESM model  | |||
| Year | 2022 | |||
| Access Date | 2024, Sep. 20 | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE CN | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 139 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Baltazar, Roberto Leo dos Santos 2 Chou, Sin Chan 3 Dereczynski, Claudine | |||
| Group | 1 2 DIMNT-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 balbob97@gmail.com 2 chou.sinchan@gmail.com 3 claudine@acd.ufrj.br | |||
| Conference Name | Workshop em Modelagem Numérica de Tempo, Clima e Mudanças Climáticas Usando o Modelo Eta: Aspectos Físicos e Numéricos (WorEta), 7 | |||
| Conference Location | Online | |||
| Date | 26-30 set. 2022 | |||
| Publisher | INPE | |||
| History (UTC) | 2022-09-26 15:26:02 :: simone -> administrator :: 2023-01-03 16:46:17 :: administrator -> simone :: 2022 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Keywords | Seasonal forecasts South America Model evaluation | |||
| Abstract | Global climate models are important tools for weather and climate simulations, but the low resolution of their forecasts provide insufficient information for local-scale planning. The introduction of regional climate models allows for the downscaling and additional detailing of the forecasts produced by global models, enabling forecasts for more limited areas and with more specific purposes. The increase in resolution also allows for a greater ability to predict extreme events, which is important in managing water crises and preventing loss of life in natural disasters. The goal of this study is to evaluate the seasonal climate forecasts of the Eta regional model driven by the BESM forecasts, both models developed by CPTEC/INPE, focusing on extreme events that took place in the Brazil Southeast and the São Francisco River Basin. The Eta regional model provides seasonal climate forecasts for all of Brazil with a resolution of 40km, using the sea surface temperatures (SST) predicted by the BESM model. The evaluation of the models predictions consisted of comparing predicted precipitation anomaly values to those observed by MSWEP for a set of years of extreme drought and flood events in the southeast region, for the trimester of December, January and February from 1987 to 2010. The Eta40km model forecasts were also evaluated for air temperature, 2m temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity and geopotential height, using the ERA5 Reanalysis values for comparison. The results indicate that the Eta40km-BESM system was able to predict the 3 extreme rainfall events identified in the studied period, failed to predict the most intense dry event and predicted the second most intense dry event. In general, the model underestimated predicted precipitation in years with observed positive anomalies and overestimated in years with observed negative anomalies. The seasonal forecast skill is limited, and current model improvement are ongoing. | |||
| Area | MET | |||
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > Seasonal forecast performance... | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| data URL | http://mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47MGJRP | |||
| zipped data URL | http://mtc-m21d.sid.inpe.br/zip/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47MGJRP | |||
| Target File | TO_04_A1_BaltazarR.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE | |||
| Host Collection | urlib.net/www/2021/06.04.03.40 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist booktitle callnumber contenttype copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination doi e-mailaddress edition editor format isbn issn label language lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisheraddress readergroup readpermission resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype type url versiontype volume | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||