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1. Identity statement
Reference TypeJournal Article
Sitemtc-m21c.sid.inpe.br
Holder Codeisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Identifier8JMKD3MGP3W34R/44LJCNE
Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/05.10.16.05   (restricted access)
Last Update2021:05.10.16.05.39 (UTC) simone
Metadata Repositorysid.inpe.br/mtc-m21c/2021/05.10.16.05.39
Metadata Last Update2022:04.03.22.28.40 (UTC) administrator
DOI10.1016/j.compag.2021.106063
ISSN0168-1699
Citation KeyLucianoPiDuRoLeMa:2021:EmMoFo
TitleEmpirical model for forecasting sugarcane yield on a local scale in Brazil using Landsat imagery and random forest algorithm
Year2021
MonthMay
Access Date2024, May 19
Type of Workjournal article
Secondary TypePRE PI
Number of Files1
Size4765 KiB
2. Context
Author1 Luciano, Ana Cláudia dos Santos
2 Picoli, Michelle Cristina Araújo
3 Duft, Daniel Garbellini
4 Rocha, Jansle Vieira
5 Leal, Manoel Regis Lima Verde
6 le Maire, Guerric
Group1
2 DIOTG-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR
Affiliation1 Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
3 Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
4 Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
5 Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
6 Eco&Sols, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, IRD
Author e-Mail Address1 analuciano@usp.br
2 michelle.picoli@inpe.br
3 daniel.duft@usp.br
4 jansle@unicamp.br
5 regis.leal@lnbr.cnpem.br
6 guerric.le_maire@cirad.fr
JournalComputers and Electronics in Agriculture
Volume184
Pagese106063
Secondary MarkA1_ENGENHARIAS_III A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOCIÊNCIAS A2_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A2_CIÊNCIA_DA_COMPUTAÇÃO B1_MEDICINA_II B1_MEDICINA_I B1_ENGENHARIAS_IV B1_ENGENHARIAS_II B1_CIÊNCIA_DE_ALIMENTOS B2_QUÍMICA B2_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_II B3_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA C_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS
History (UTC)2021-05-10 16:05:39 :: simone -> administrator ::
2021-05-10 16:05:40 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021
2021-05-10 16:06:45 :: simone -> administrator :: 2021
2022-04-03 22:28:40 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021
3. Content and structure
Is the master or a copy?is the master
Content Stagecompleted
Transferable1
Content TypeExternal Contribution
Version Typepublisher
KeywordsCrop yield
Remote sensing
Vegetation indices
Machine learning
AbstractSugarcane plays an important role in food and energy production in Brazil and worldwide. The large availability of satellite sensors and advanced techniques for processing data have improved the forecasting sugarcane yield on a local and global scale, but more work is needed on exploiting the synergy between remote sensing, meteorological and agronomic data. In this study, we combined such data sources to forecast sugarcane yield using a random forest (RF) algorithm on an extensive area of 50,000 ha, over four years. Images from Landsat satellites were processed to time series of surface reflectance and spectral indices. The approach focused on the development of predictive models which only used data acquired and accessible several months before the harvest. First, three RF models were calibrated with different predictors to forecast the sugarcane yield at harvest: using Landsat satellite images and meteorological data (RF1); agronomic and meteorological data (RF2); a combination of Landsat satellite images, agronomic and meteorological data (RF3). As a comparison, we also tested the influence of including knowledge on the future harvest date in the models RF2 and RF3 (RF4 and RF5). The average values of R2 for RF1, RF2, and RF3 were 0.66, 0.50 and 0.74, respectively. The model with the highest values of R2 (RF3) had a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.9 ton ha−1 on yield forecast, approximately 15% of the yield average. Including the harvest date improved the RF2 and RF3 models to reach R2 = 0.69 and RMSE = 10.8 ton ha−1 for RF4, and R2 = 0.76 and RMSE of 9.4 ton ha−1 for RF5. A blind forecasting test for the 2016 yields showed similar prediction than the forecast made by in situ field expertise. This result has the potential to assist management of sugarcane production.
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