| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | plutao.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W/44SJQQ9 |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2021/06.16.16.15.43 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2021:06.17.12.56.49 (UTC) lattes |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2021/06.16.16.15.44 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:04.03.22.27.12 (UTC) administrator |
| DOI | 10.3390/w13121613 |
| ISSN | 2073-4441 |
| Label | lattes: 3752951275341381 10 RochaJúniorPSGGCPPCH:2021:EmSeRa |
| Citation Key | RochaJúniorPSGGCPPCH:2021:EmSeRa |
| Title | An Empirical Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting Model for the Northeast Region of Brazil  |
| Year | 2021 |
| Access Date | 2024, May 19 |
| Type of Work | journal article |
| Secondary Type | PRE PI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 10293 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Rocha Júnior, Rodrigo Lins da 2 Pinto, David Duarte Cavalcante 3 Silva, Fabricio Daniel dos Santos 4 Gomes, Heliofabio Barros 5 Gomes, Helber Barros 6 Costa, Rafaela Lisboa 7 Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos 8 Peña, Malaquias 9 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 10 Herdies, Dirceu Luis |
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGTU |
| ORCID | 1 0000-0003-4654-8947 2 0000-0001-7032-6354 3 0000-0002-3185-6413 4 5 0000-0001-9972-9990 6 7 0000-0003-4694-2370 |
| Group | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 DIPTC-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 10 DIMNT-CGCT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 2 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 3 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 4 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 5 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 6 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 7 Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) 8 University of Connecticut 9 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 10 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 rrodrigo.junior@hotmail.com 2 david.duarte@icat.ufal.br 3 fabricio.santos@icat.ufal.br 4 heliofabio@icat.ufal.br 5 helber.gomes@icat.ufal.br 6 rafaelalisboac@gmail.com 7 marcospspereira@hotmail.com 8 mpena@uconn.edu 9 caio.augusto.coelho@gmail.com 10 dirceu.herdies@inpe.br |
| Journal | Water |
| Volume | 13 |
| Number | 12 |
| Pages | 1613 |
| Secondary Mark | B3_ENGENHARIAS_I |
| History (UTC) | 2021-06-17 12:56:51 :: lattes -> administrator :: 2021 2022-04-03 22:27:12 :: administrator -> simone :: 2021 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Version Type | publisher |
| Keywords | climate prediction empirical model North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast quality assessment |
| Abstract | The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) is characterized by large climate variability that causes extreme and long unseasonal wet and dry periods. Despite significant model developments to improve seasonal forecasting for the NEB, the achievement of a satisfactory accuracy often remains a challenge, and forecasting methods aimed at reducing uncertainties regarding future climate are needed. In this work, we implement and assess the performance of an empirical model (EmpM) based on a decomposition of historical data into dominant modes of precipitation and seasonal forecast applied to the NEB domain. We analyzed the models performance for the February-MarchApril quarter and compared its results with forecasts based on data from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) project for the same period. We found that the first three leading precipitation modes obtained by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) explained most of the rainfall variability for the season of interest. Thereby, this study focuses on them for the forecast evaluations. A teleconnection analysis shows that most of the variability in precipitation comes from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in various areas of the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic. The modes exhibit different spatial patterns across the NEB, with the first being concentrated in the northern half of the region and presenting remarkable associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), both linked to the latitudinal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As for the second mode, the correlations with oceanic regions and its loading pattern point to the influence of the incursion of frontal systems in the southern NEB. The time series of the third mode implies the influence of a lower frequency mode of variability, probably related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The teleconnection patterns found in the analysis allowed for a reliable forecast of the time series of each mode, which, combined, result in the final rainfall prediction outputted by the model. Overall, the EmpM outperformed the post-processed NMME for most of the NEB, except for some areas along the northern region, where the NMME showed superiority. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção a partir de 2021 > CGCT > An Empirical Seasonal... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | rocha_empirical.pdf |
| User Group | lattes |
| Reader Group | administrator lattes |
| Visibility | shown |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| Update Permission | not transferred |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/46KUATE |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX; SCOPUS. |
| Host Collection | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn lineage mark mirrorrepository month nextedition notes parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | simone |
| update | |